A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
